Climate and nutrient scenarios - Background
Four transient GCM greenhouse gas emission scenarios form the latest IPCC runs (1960-2100) have been selected to be used in the project: ECHAM5-A2, ECHAM5-3-A1B, ECHAM5-1-A1B and HadCM3 A1B. The runs are downscaled to increase the regional resolution.
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| Downscaled regional models have a much higher resolution (right) than the global model (left). |
Nutrient scenarios have been conducted using contemporary loads which assumes that no further action will be taken to reduce nutrient input to the Baltic Sea. This scenario can be compared to a scenario simulating the future state of the Baltic Sea when measures of nutrient reductions are undertaken as suggested in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. |
Nutrient load scenarios for ECOSUPPORT
The four nutrient load scenarios are comprised of a reference with approximately unchanged loads (REF), a pessimistic "business as usual" scenario (BAU), and two more optimistic scenarios which are based on current EU legislation (CLEG) and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP).
REF: Constant nutrient loads as in recent years (based on the average of 1995-2002).
CLEG:
Nutrient loads as EU directives on sewage treatment and the NEC directive on air emissions are fulfilled by all countries.
BSAP:
Nutrient loads following the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.
BAU: Nutrient loads under the assumption of an expanding agriculture.
For a full description of the nutrient change scenarios used in ECOSUPPORT, see Gustafsson et al. (2011), here....
The ECOSUPPORT Decision Support System (DSS) web pages:
